After a relatively cool May with several rainy days, the AEMET describes a shift in weather patterns marked by the arrival of high-pressure systems and very warm air from the subtropical Atlantic and North Africa.
This shift will result in a gradual rise in maximum temperatures, which will go from values around 23–26 degrees in the coming days to readings that could easily exceed 30–32 degrees in the Community of Madrid. These are values well above seasonal norms, which is why meteorologists are referring to an episode of “midsummer heat” that has arrived ahead of schedule.
What the AEMET says and what the weather event will be like
AEMET warnings point to a sharp rise in temperatures starting in the second half of the week, when a powerful high-pressure system will settle over the Peninsula, bringing clear skies, more hours of sunshine, and increasingly warm and dry air. In the central region, including the Community of Madrid, the agency has not ruled out issuing high-temperature warnings if maximum temperatures exceed official thresholds, particularly in areas of the Tagus Valley.
The scenario projected by various weather services is for highs hovering around or exceeding 30–32 degrees in the capital and surrounding municipalities, with lows also rising to above 17–19 degrees, making it difficult for the nights to feel truly cool.
Although this is not the first time Madrid has experienced days of intense heat in May, these types of “early summer” episodes have been observed more frequently in recent years, fitting the warming trend noted by both AEMET and other climate services. Climatologists emphasize that, beyond a specific day of 30 or 32 degrees, what matters is the increase in the duration and recurrence of these heat spikes during traditionally mild months. For the public, the practical consequence is a lengthening of the intense heat season, which is no longer limited to July and August but can begin intermittently as early as May or even late April.