Madrid is beginning to see the light after weeks of storms that have brought gray days, showers, and umbrellas always at hand. The State Meteorological Agency’s models suggest that, after a few last bursts of instability in the coming days, the second half of February will bring a change in pattern: the storms will move towards northern Europe, the anticyclone will gain strength over the peninsula, and the rains will disappear from the center and south, including the capital.
The immediate situation continues to be marked by the remnants of fronts associated with storms such as Leonardo and Marta, which are still leaving cloudy skies, intermittent showers, and some snow at high altitudes in the Madrid mountains. In the short term, AEMET forecasts unstable days, with rain more likely in the mountains and in the south of the region, alternating with clear spells and a moderate rise in maximum temperatures, which may already be around 15-17 degrees in the city, and yellow warnings for wind. In other words, it is not yet time to put away your umbrella, but you can feel that the weather is starting to be less harsh than at the end of January.
When will the “change in weather” arrive?
Editorial credit: Shutterstock
The key is in the calendar. Meteorologists place the clearest shift in the week of February 16: the polar jet stream will straighten out and move to higher latitudes, causing Atlantic storms to circulate further north and no longer fully impact Spain. In practice, this will translate into a longer respite from the rains in the center and south of the peninsula, while precipitation will be concentrated mainly in Galicia and the Cantabrian coast. For Madrid, the most likely scenario is several days in a row without significant rain, with only a few weak fronts “passing through” and without the extraordinary accumulations of recent weeks.
The return of the anticyclone will only stop the rain, but the cold will remain and the minimum temperatures will drop. AEMET and other meteorological services are forecasting daytime temperatures above normal for this time of year. The skies will tend to be clearer, the wind will lose intensity, and the atmosphere, although still wintry at night, will be more like an early end to winter than the almost continuous storms experienced since January.
Experts insist that February remains a very dynamic month and that the change in pattern does not mean the definitive end of rainfall. What is expected is that, after a start to the month with rainfall 200% above normal in cities such as Madrid, the weather will return to a more typical pattern: predominantly dry days, some isolated fronts and, in the last week of February, conditions close to average or even slightly dry in the south of the peninsula.