After four months of heat, the weather has decided to change almost overnight. Ahead lie the few weeks of the year when mid-season jackets make sense in Madrid, because the city is finally experiencing a shift in temperatures that seems here to stay.
After a rainy day and several days of more stable weather, the State Meteorological Agency’s forecast indicates a high probability of rain in the capital from Friday, October 2, through at least Sunday, October 4, with a 100% chance of precipitation on Saturday and a 95% chance on Sunday, according to the projected weather pattern.
The return of the rain will be accompanied by overcast skies and a drop in high temperatures. Although the weekend is still a ways off and the exact intensity of the rainfall may vary, the models indicate that Madrid will experience a significantly wetter and more autumnal scenario than what we saw during the last days of September.
Rain expected for the first weekend of October
AEMET’s forecast for Madrid indicates agradual increase in unstable weather conditions during the second half of the week. On Thursday, October 1, the probability of precipitation is already as high as 45%, while on Friday, October 2, it rises to 95% at certain times of the day.
Saturday, October 3, is, for now, the day with the clearest forecast: the probability of rain reaches 100% during the middle of the day. Sunday, October 4, is also expected to remain very unstable, with a 95% chance of precipitation.
This forecast does not mean it will rain nonstop throughout the Community of Madrid or 24 hours a day. The percentage refers to the probability of precipitation occurring in the municipality of Madrid during the indicated time periods. The amount of rain, the duration of the showers, and their distribution by neighborhood may vary as the weekend approaches.
Lower temperatures and an autumnal atmosphere
In addition to the rain, the change in weather will bring a drop in temperatures. Highs could hover around 21 or 22 ºC over the weekend, a notable difference from the higher temperatures recorded in recent days.
The gray skies, humidity, and the arrival of rain will make it feel cooler, especially in the morning and late afternoon. It will be a typical transition into October: less heat, more clouds, and the need to break out a jacket, umbrella, or raincoat for outdoor activities.
Low temperatures will also tend to drop, although the decrease will be more noticeable in the Sierra, where rain and clouds may make it feel considerably cooler than in the center of the capital. Anyone planning to go hiking, visit mountain towns, or travel to higher elevations in the region should check the specific forecast for their destination before heading out.